U.S. economy’s current growth will peak in 2019

The U.S. economy has been on a long, slow upward trend for eight years, but a Cornell economist predicts that – like all good things – the steady growth will soon come to an end, likely by the end of the year.

It won’t be a disastrous scenario like the 2009 recession, but rather a garden-variety reaction to the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and, in turn, interest-sensitive sectors cooling off, he said.

“The leading indicators show no signs of immediately slowing down, so I’m not saying the economy’s in bad shape – not at all,” said Steven Kyle, associate professor of applied economics. “Nevertheless, we’re likely nearing the peak of the business cycle in the near future – next year, more likely, but for sure in a year and a half.”