WEBVTT

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understand the needs of the individual

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in order to help them become better and

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if we don't we can actually make them

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worse so Doug how do we go about

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determining an individual's risk well

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broadly speaking there are two ways that

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we assess risk one is clinicians use

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their professional judgment or their gut

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and another is to use actuarial risk

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tools that have actually been validated

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and they have items that are shown to

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predict greater risks of treatment

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failure and recidivism on average when

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clinicians follow their gut when

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providers follow their gut they are

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right about 50% of the time which means

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no better than flipping a coin when you

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use an actuarial tool they those tools

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tend to be right about 70% of the time

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so while not perfect they are

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considerably better and therefore the

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best practice is to use an actuarial

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based research tool